      cloudedjudgement.substack.com · 2025-02-14
      · 475d
    

Clouded Judgement: Q4 2024 Software Earnings & SaaS Valuation Analysis

Software earnings season reveals underwhelming guidance with most companies guiding in line with consensus, suggesting minimal upside surprises and challenging macro conditions for buyers. January inflation data came in hotter than expected, pushing the 10-year yield to 4.65%, while the SaaS market remains valued at a median 6.4x NTM revenue with significant dispersion based on growth rates and profitability metrics.

16 metrics· Cited 0× in the knowledge base ·Open source ↗

Metrics in this report

10-Year Treasury Yield

4.65percent

current

Post-January 2025 inflation update

CAC Payback Period

37months

median

Public SaaS companies

Core CPI YoY

3.3percent

current

January 2025, vs 3.1% consensus

Free Cash Flow Margin

16percent

median

Public SaaS companies

G&A as % of Revenue

17percent

median

Public SaaS companies

Gross Margin

76percent

median

Public SaaS companies

Headline CPI YoY

3.0percent

current

January 2025, vs 2.9% consensus

LTM Revenue Growth

14percent

median

Public SaaS companies

NTM Revenue Growth

12percent

median

Public SaaS companies

Net Revenue Retention

109percent

median

Public SaaS companies

Operating Margin

-7percent

median

Public SaaS companies

R&D as % of Revenue

24percent

median

Public SaaS companies

SaaS Revenue Multiple (EV/NTM)

6.4multiple

median

Public SaaS companies indexed in Clouded Judgement tracker

SaaS Revenue Multiple (EV/NTM) - High Growth

12.8multiple

median

SaaS companies with >27% projected NTM growth

SaaS Revenue Multiple (EV/NTM) - Low Growth

4.5multiple

median

SaaS companies with <15% projected NTM growth

Sales & Marketing as % of Revenue

40percent

median

Public SaaS companies