cloudedjudgement.substack.com · 2022-02-11 · 1574d

Clouded Judgement: SaaS Valuation in the Face of Fed Rate Hikes and Inflation

The article analyzes how macroeconomic factors—particularly Fed interest rate expectations and inflation data—drive SaaS stock valuations and multiples. The author argues that recent CPI inflation data (7.5%) has already been priced into market expectations for rate hikes, and predicts the cloud software market may have reached or is near its valuation bottom for 2022. The piece includes detailed benchmarking data on 10 public SaaS companies' share price movements, valuation multiples, growth rates, and operational metrics.

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Metrics in this report

10-Year Treasury Yield

2.0percent

observed

Reached on February 10, 2022 (first time since 2019)

CAC Payback Period

25months

median

Public SaaS companies (Feb 2022)

CAC Payback Period

25months

median

Gross-margin-adjusted basis for public SaaS

CPI (Year-over-Year)

7.5percent

latest

U.S. January 2022, highest since 1982

CPI (YoY)

7.5percent

observed

U.S. headline inflation, January 2022 (highest since 1982)

EV / NTM Revenue Multiple

10.6multiple

median

Public SaaS companies (overall market, Feb 2022)

EV / NTM Revenue Multiple

38.8multiple

median

Top 5 SaaS companies by valuation (Feb 2022)

EV / NTM Revenue Multiple

21.0multiple

median

High-growth SaaS (>30% NTM growth, Feb 2022)

EV / NTM Revenue Multiple

13.8multiple

median

Mid-growth SaaS (15-30% NTM growth, Feb 2022)

EV / NTM Revenue Multiple

7.1multiple

median

Low-growth SaaS (<15% NTM growth, Feb 2022)

EV / NTM Revenue Multiple

10.6x

median

Broad public SaaS cohort

EV / NTM Revenue Multiple

38.8x

median

Top 5 SaaS companies by market cap

EV / NTM Revenue Multiple

14.9x

average

3-month trailing average across cohort

EV / NTM Revenue Multiple

21.0x

median

High-growth SaaS (>30% NTM growth)

EV / NTM Revenue Multiple

13.8x

median

Mid-growth SaaS (15-30% NTM growth)

EV / NTM Revenue Multiple

7.1x

median

Low-growth SaaS (<15% NTM growth)

FCF Margin

4percent

median

Public SaaS companies (Feb 2022)

FCF Margin

4percent

median

Public SaaS cohort

G&A as % of Revenue

19percent

median

Public SaaS companies (Feb 2022)

G&A as % of Revenue

19percent

median

Public SaaS cohort

Gross Margin

74percent

median

Public SaaS companies (Feb 2022)

Gross Margin

74percent

median

Public SaaS cohort

LTM Revenue Growth Rate

34percent

median

Public SaaS companies (Feb 2022)

LTM Revenue Growth Rate

34percent

median

Public SaaS cohort

NTM Revenue Growth Rate

24percent

median

Public SaaS companies (Feb 2022)

NTM Revenue Growth Rate

24percent

median

Public SaaS cohort

Net Revenue Retention

119percent

median

Public SaaS companies (Feb 2022)

Net Revenue Retention

119percent

median

Public SaaS cohort

Operating Margin

-19percent

median

Public SaaS companies (Feb 2022)

Operating Margin

-19percent

median

Public SaaS cohort

R&D as % of Revenue

26percent

median

Public SaaS companies (Feb 2022)

R&D as % of Revenue

26percent

median

Public SaaS cohort

S&M as % of Revenue

44percent

median

Public SaaS cohort

Sales & Marketing as % of Revenue

44percent

median

Public SaaS companies (Feb 2022)