Clouded Judgement: SaaS Valuation in the Face of Fed Rate Hikes and Inflation
The article analyzes how macroeconomic factors—particularly Fed interest rate expectations and inflation data—drive SaaS stock valuations and multiples. The author argues that recent CPI inflation data (7.5%) has already been priced into market expectations for rate hikes, and predicts the cloud software market may have reached or is near its valuation bottom for 2022. The piece includes detailed benchmarking data on 10 public SaaS companies' share price movements, valuation multiples, growth rates, and operational metrics.
Metrics in this report
2.0percent
observed
Reached on February 10, 2022 (first time since 2019)
25months
median
Public SaaS companies (Feb 2022)
25months
median
Gross-margin-adjusted basis for public SaaS
7.5percent
latest
U.S. January 2022, highest since 1982
7.5percent
observed
U.S. headline inflation, January 2022 (highest since 1982)
10.6multiple
median
Public SaaS companies (overall market, Feb 2022)
38.8multiple
median
Top 5 SaaS companies by valuation (Feb 2022)
21.0multiple
median
High-growth SaaS (>30% NTM growth, Feb 2022)
13.8multiple
median
Mid-growth SaaS (15-30% NTM growth, Feb 2022)
7.1multiple
median
Low-growth SaaS (<15% NTM growth, Feb 2022)
10.6x
median
Broad public SaaS cohort
38.8x
median
Top 5 SaaS companies by market cap
14.9x
average
3-month trailing average across cohort
21.0x
median
High-growth SaaS (>30% NTM growth)
13.8x
median
Mid-growth SaaS (15-30% NTM growth)
7.1x
median
Low-growth SaaS (<15% NTM growth)
4percent
median
Public SaaS companies (Feb 2022)
4percent
median
Public SaaS cohort
19percent
median
Public SaaS companies (Feb 2022)
19percent
median
Public SaaS cohort
74percent
median
Public SaaS companies (Feb 2022)
74percent
median
Public SaaS cohort
34percent
median
Public SaaS companies (Feb 2022)
34percent
median
Public SaaS cohort
24percent
median
Public SaaS companies (Feb 2022)
24percent
median
Public SaaS cohort
119percent
median
Public SaaS companies (Feb 2022)
119percent
median
Public SaaS cohort
-19percent
median
Public SaaS companies (Feb 2022)
-19percent
median
Public SaaS cohort
26percent
median
Public SaaS companies (Feb 2022)
26percent
median
Public SaaS cohort
44percent
median
Public SaaS cohort
44percent
median
Public SaaS companies (Feb 2022)