cloudedjudgement.substack.com · 2022-01-07 · 1609d

Clouded Judgement: SaaS Valuation Multiple Compression & Growth-Adjusted Analysis (Jan 2022)

This article analyzes the sharp volatility in cloud software valuations during early January 2022, showing that overall SaaS multiples have compressed back to pre-COVID levels while high-growth software remains elevated at 22x NTM revenue. The author provides comprehensive SaaS operating metric benchmarks (median NRR 119%, CAC payback 25 months, 74% gross margin) and contextualizes multiple compression within historical interest rate cycles and investor positioning.

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Metrics in this report

10-Year Treasury Yield

1.7percent

January 2022

10-Year Treasury Yield

3percent

Fall 2018

CAC Payback Period

25months

median

Public SaaS companies, January 2022

Enterprise Value / NTM Revenue Multiple

11.1x

median

Overall SaaS public company cohort, January 2022

Enterprise Value / NTM Revenue Multiple

22.2x

median

High-growth SaaS (>30% projected NTM growth), January 2022

Enterprise Value / NTM Revenue Multiple

10.4x

median

Mid-growth SaaS (15-30% projected NTM growth), January 2022

Enterprise Value / NTM Revenue Multiple

4.8x

median

Low-growth SaaS (<15% projected NTM growth), January 2022

Enterprise Value / NTM Revenue Multiple

34.2x

median

Top 5 SaaS companies by market cap, January 2022

Free Cash Flow Margin

4percent

median

Public SaaS companies, January 2022

G&A Expense Ratio

19percent

median

Public SaaS companies, January 2022

Gross Margin

74percent

median

Public SaaS companies, January 2022

LTM Revenue Growth Rate

34percent

median

Public SaaS companies, January 2022

NTM Revenue Growth Rate

24percent

median

Public SaaS companies, January 2022

Net Revenue Retention

119percent

median

Public SaaS companies, January 2022

Operating Margin

-19percent

median

Public SaaS companies, January 2022

R&D Expense Ratio

26percent

median

Public SaaS companies, January 2022

Sales & Marketing Expense Ratio

44percent

median

Public SaaS companies, January 2022