cloudedjudgement.substack.com · 2024-12-06 · 545d

Clouded Judgement: Are Software Valuations Cheap or Expensive?

The article analyzes whether SaaS software companies are currently cheap or expensive by examining multiple valuation frameworks. While revenue multiples appear below historical averages, growth-adjusted revenue multiples are at all-time highs at 0.56x versus a long-term average of 0.2x, suggesting valuations are expensive relative to growth. The analysis reconciles this paradox by examining FCF multiples and business quality improvements, concluding that current valuations warrant nuanced interpretation depending on which metric anchors the assessment.

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Metrics in this report

CAC Payback Period

37months

median

SaaS companies overall

Free Cash Flow Margin

15percent

median

SaaS companies overall

Free Cash Flow Multiple (EV/NTM FCF)

37.7multiple

median

SaaS companies with positive FCF

Free Cash Flow Multiple (EV/NTM FCF)

40multiple

average

Long-term historical average for SaaS

G&A as Percent of Revenue

17percent

median

SaaS companies overall

Gross Margin

75percent

median

SaaS companies at scale

Growth-Adjusted Revenue Multiple (EV/Revenue/Growth)

0.56multiple

median

Current SaaS market (as of December 2024)

Growth-Adjusted Revenue Multiple (EV/Revenue/Growth)

0.20multiple

average

Long-term historical average for SaaS

LTM Revenue Growth

14percent

median

SaaS companies overall

NTM Revenue Growth

12percent

median

SaaS companies overall

Net Revenue Retention

108percent

median

SaaS companies overall

Operating Margin

-7percent

median

SaaS companies overall

R&D as Percent of Revenue

25percent

median

SaaS companies overall

Revenue Multiple (EV/NTM Revenue)

6.4multiple

median

Overall SaaS market

S&M as Percent of Revenue

40percent

median

SaaS companies overall