cloudedjudgement.substack.com · 2025-12-05 · 181d

Clouded Judgement: The Irrational Equity Valuation Game in Startup Hiring

The article critiques the emerging practice of early-stage founders raising at increasingly high valuations primarily to offer larger nominal equity packages to attract talent, despite the fact that higher valuations increase dilution and reduce actual upside for employees. The author argues this behavior, while rationally motivated, mirrors 2021's hype cycle and will eventually collapse when companies fail to justify inflated paper valuations, leaving employees with worthless equity.

10 metrics· Cited 0× in the knowledge base ·Open source ↗

Metrics in this report

High Growth SaaS Median EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

15.1x

median

Public SaaS companies with >22% projected NTM growth

Median CAC Payback Period

35months

median

Public cloud SaaS companies

Median FCF Margin

19percent

median

Public cloud SaaS companies

Median Gross Margin

76percent

median

Public cloud SaaS companies

Median NTM Growth Rate

12percent

median

Public cloud SaaS companies

Median Net Retention

108percent

median

Public cloud SaaS companies

Median Operating Margin

-2percent

median

Public cloud SaaS companies

Median R&D Spend

23percent of revenue

median

Public cloud SaaS companies

Median S&M Spend

37percent of revenue

median

Public cloud SaaS companies

Overall Median EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

4.8x

median

Public cloud SaaS companies