cloudedjudgement.substack.com · 2021-12-31 · 1616d

Clouded Judgement: Q3 2021 SaaS Earnings Recap & Valuation Multiple Analysis

This article provides a comprehensive analysis of Q3 2021 cloud software company earnings, tracking performance relative to consensus estimates, guidance, and key operating metrics. It presents detailed valuation multiple comparisons, year-over-year stock performance data, and benchmarking analysis across the SaaS sector, revealing a cohort of high-growth companies trading at significantly elevated EV/NTM revenue multiples.

32 metrics· Cited 0× in the knowledge base ·Open source ↗

Metrics in this report

CAC Payback Period

9months

maximum

Top decile SaaS companies, gross margin-adjusted basis

CAC Payback Period

25months

median

SaaS cohort overall

EV / NTM Revenue Multiple

12.4x

median

Overall SaaS market

EV / NTM Revenue Multiple

43.5x

average

Top 10 highest-multiple SaaS companies

EV / NTM Revenue Multiple

27.2x

median

High-growth SaaS (>30% NTM growth)

EV / NTM Revenue Multiple

11.6x

median

Mid-growth SaaS (15-30% NTM growth)

EV / NTM Revenue Multiple

5.5x

median

Low-growth SaaS (<15% NTM growth)

EV / NTM Revenue Multiple

12.4x

median

Overall SaaS cohort

EV / NTM Revenue Multiple

42.4x

median

Top 5 highest-valuation SaaS companies

EV / NTM Revenue Multiple

27.2x

median

High-growth SaaS (>30% NTM growth)

EV / NTM Revenue Multiple

11.6x

median

Mid-growth SaaS (15-30% NTM growth)

EV / NTM Revenue Multiple

5.5x

median

Low-growth SaaS (<15% NTM growth)

EV / NTM Revenue Multiple

56.5x

top-quartile

Snowflake (highest valuation in cohort)

EV / NTM Revenue Multiple

91.5x

best-in-class

Snowflake end of 2020

Free Cash Flow Margin

-8%percent

median

Top 10 highest-multiple SaaS companies

Free Cash Flow Margin

4percent

median

SaaS cohort overall

G&A as % of Revenue

19percent

median

SaaS cohort overall

General & Administrative as % of Revenue

19%percent

median

Public SaaS companies

Gross Margin

74%percent

median

Top 10 highest-multiple SaaS companies

Gross Margin

74percent

median

SaaS cohort overall

LTM Growth Rate

34percent

median

SaaS cohort overall

NTM Growth Rate

24percent

median

SaaS cohort overall

Net Retention Rate

130%percent

minimum

Top decile SaaS companies

Net Revenue Retention

119percent

median

SaaS cohort overall

Operating Margin

-51%percent

average

Top 10 highest-multiple SaaS companies

Operating Margin

-19percent

median

SaaS cohort overall

R&D as % of Revenue

26percent

median

SaaS cohort overall

Research & Development as % of Revenue

26%percent

median

Public SaaS companies

Revenue Growth Rate (NTM)

52%percent

average

Top 10 highest-multiple SaaS companies

Revenue Multiple Compression

35percent

median

Snowflake multiple compression from end 2020 to end 2021

S&M as % of Revenue

44percent

median

SaaS cohort overall

Sales & Marketing as % of Revenue

44%percent

median

Public SaaS companies