cloudedjudgement.substack.com · 2021-12-17 · 1630d

Clouded Judgement

This weekly cloud software market update analyzes valuation multiple compression following hawkish FOMC guidance on interest rate hikes in 2022-2023, showing cloud software stocks down across the board as growth asset prices decline with rising real rates. The article benchmarks current SaaS multiples against historical peaks, revealing that high-growth software remains 76% above pre-COVID levels while overall median multiples have normalized, and provides operational metrics across the public SaaS cohort including NRR, CAC payback, and Rule of 40 analysis.

17 metrics· Cited 0× in the knowledge base ·Open source ↗

Metrics in this report

CAC Payback Period

25months

median

Public SaaS cohort customer acquisition cost payback

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

12.1xmultiple

median

Overall public SaaS cohort as of Dec 17, 2021

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

39.0xmultiple

median

Top 5 highest-valued SaaS companies by multiple

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple - Bottom Quartile

7.5xmultiple

median

Dec 17, 2021 snapshot

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple - High Growth

24.9xmultiple

median

SaaS companies with >30% projected NTM growth

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple - Low Growth

5.3xmultiple

median

SaaS companies with <15% projected NTM growth

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple - Mid Growth

11.2xmultiple

median

SaaS companies with 15-30% projected NTM growth

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple - Top Quartile

18.0xmultiple

top-quartile

Dec 17, 2021 snapshot

FCF Margin

4%percent

median

Public SaaS cohort free cash flow margin

G&A Spend

19%percent of revenue

median

Public SaaS cohort G&A expense ratio

Gross Margin

74%percent

median

Public SaaS cohort gross profit margin

LTM Revenue Growth

33%percent

median

Public SaaS cohort last-twelve-months actual growth

NTM Revenue Growth

24%percent

median

Public SaaS cohort next-twelve-months projected growth

Net Revenue Retention

119%percent

median

Public SaaS cohort expansion revenue retention

Operating Margin

-19%percent

median

Public SaaS cohort operating profit margin

R&D Spend

26%percent of revenue

median

Public SaaS cohort R&D expense ratio

Sales & Marketing Spend

44%percent of revenue

median

Public SaaS cohort S&M expense ratio