cloudedjudgement.substack.com · 2023-12-15 · 902d

Clouded Judgement: November 2023 Macro Update & SaaS Valuation Multiples Analysis

This weekly cloud software market update analyzes November 2023 inflation data, FOMC commentary, and Fed rate projections showing a strengthening soft-landing narrative, then provides comprehensive SaaS valuation multiple analysis across growth cohorts with median benchmarks for operating metrics including 75% gross margin, 112% NRR, and 39-month CAC payback. The article demonstrates that SaaS companies are increasingly valued rationally relative to growth expectations, with a median EV/NTM revenue multiple of 6.3x and clear correlation between growth rate and valuation premium.

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Metrics in this report

10-Year Treasury Yield

3.9percent

Week of December 2023; lowest since summer

CAC Payback (Gross-Margin-Adjusted)

39months

median

SaaS companies at scale

CPI YoY

3.1percent

November 2023

Core PCE Inflation YoY

3.2percent

November 2023

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

6.3multiple

median

Broad SaaS cohort

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

16.9multiple

median

Top 5 SaaS companies

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

15.8multiple

median

High-growth SaaS (>30% NTM growth)

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

9.3multiple

median

Mid-growth SaaS (15-30% NTM growth)

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

4.1multiple

median

Low-growth SaaS (<15% NTM growth)

FCF Margin

8percent

median

SaaS companies at scale

Fed Projected PCE Inflation

2.4percent

target

2024 Fed projection

G&A as % of Revenue

17percent

median

SaaS companies at scale

Gross Margin

75percent

median

SaaS companies at scale

LTM Growth Rate

20percent

median

SaaS companies at scale

NTM Growth Rate

14percent

median

SaaS companies at scale

Net Revenue Retention (NRR)

112percent

median

SaaS companies at scale

Operating Margin

-13percent

median

SaaS companies at scale

R&D as % of Revenue

26percent

median

SaaS companies at scale

S&M as % of Revenue

43percent

median

SaaS companies at scale