      cloudedjudgement.substack.com · 2023-12-01
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Clouded Judgement: Net New ARR Rebound & AWS ReInvent 2023 Implications

AWS ReInvent 2023 signals a shift toward 'prototype to production' AI implementations in 2024, with a focus on customization, data foundations, and vendor choice rather than single-model dominance. Concurrent with cloud infrastructure trends, median net new ARR growth across SaaS turned positive in Q3 2023 for the first time in two years, suggesting that customer cost optimization cycles are completing and enabling renewed spending on new AI/ML workloads.

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Metrics in this report

10-Year EV / NTM Revenue Multiple

4.3x

median

Public SaaS companies (historical)

Median CAC Payback Period

36months

median

Public SaaS companies

Median EV / NTM Revenue Multiple

5.8x

median

Public SaaS companies overall

Median EV / NTM Revenue Multiple

16.6x

median

Top 5 SaaS companies by market cap

Median EV / NTM Revenue Multiple

13.9x

median

High growth SaaS (>30% projected NTM growth)

Median EV / NTM Revenue Multiple

8.7x

median

Mid growth SaaS (15-30% projected NTM growth)

Median EV / NTM Revenue Multiple

4.0x

median

Low growth SaaS (<15% projected NTM growth)

Median FCF Margin

8percent

median

Public SaaS companies with positive FCF

Median G&A as % of Revenue

17percent

median

Public SaaS companies

Median Gross Margin

75percent

median

Public SaaS companies

Median LTM Growth Rate

20percent

median

Public SaaS companies

Median NTM Growth Rate

14percent

median

Public SaaS companies

Median Net Revenue Retention

112percent

median

Public SaaS companies

Median Operating Margin

-15percent

median

Public SaaS companies

Median R&D as % of Revenue

26percent

median

Public SaaS companies

Median S&M as % of Revenue

42percent

median

Public SaaS companies

Net New ARR YoY Growth

3percent

median

Q3 2023 public SaaS cohort (first positive quarter in two years)