cloudedjudgement.substack.com · 2025-01-17 · 503d

Clouded Judgement: December Inflation Data & SaaS Valuation Multiples

This newsletter analyzes the December inflation data release and its impact on rate expectations across 2025, showing that lighter-than-expected inflation drove a 2.3% Nasdaq rally. The article provides comprehensive SaaS valuation metrics and operating benchmarks, including median revenue multiples (6.3x overall, 9.2x high-growth), Rule of 40 analysis, and operating metrics like NRR (109%), CAC payback (37 months), and gross margins (76%).

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Metrics in this report

CAC Payback Period

37months

median

Public SaaS companies (gross margin adjusted)

Core CPI YoY

3.2percent

December 2024 U.S. inflation (beat consensus of 3.3%)

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

6.3x

median

All public SaaS companies

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

19.1x

median

Top 5 SaaS companies by market cap

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

9.2x

median

High-growth SaaS (>27% NTM growth)

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

11.5x

median

Mid-growth SaaS (15-27% NTM growth)

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

4.5x

median

Low-growth SaaS (<15% NTM growth)

Free Cash Flow Margin

16percent

median

Public SaaS companies

G&A as % Revenue

17percent

median

Public SaaS companies

Gross Margin

76percent

median

Public SaaS companies

Headline CPI YoY

2.9percent

December 2024 U.S. inflation (matched consensus)

Headline PPI YoY

3.3percent

December 2024 U.S. producer inflation (beat consensus of 3.5%)

LTM Revenue Growth Rate

14percent

median

Public SaaS companies

NTM Revenue Growth Rate

12percent

median

Public SaaS companies

Net Revenue Retention

109percent

median

Public SaaS companies

Operating Margin

7percent

median

Public SaaS companies

R&D as % Revenue

24percent

median

Public SaaS companies

Sales & Marketing as % Revenue

40percent

median

Public SaaS companies