      cloudedjudgement.substack.com · 2021-01-15
      · 1966d
    

Clouded Judgement

Jamin Ball analyzes early-stage cloud adoption trends using Morgan Stanley CIO survey data showing only 26% of workloads currently run in public cloud, positioning significant future TAM expansion. The article provides detailed SaaS valuation benchmarks across growth tiers, revealing a median EV/NTM revenue multiple of 18.1x with high-growth companies trading at 32.5x, and highlights capital raises and operational metrics across public cloud infrastructure companies.

18 metrics· Cited 0× in the knowledge base ·Open source ↗

Metrics in this report

1-Year Trailing Average EV/NTM Multiple

13.1x

average

SaaS cohort trailing 12-month average

3-Month Trailing Average EV/NTM Multiple

18.1x

average

SaaS cohort trailing 3-month average

CAC Payback Period

24months

median

Public SaaS cohort

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple (High Growth >30%)

32.5x

median

High-growth SaaS companies (>30% NTM growth)

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple (Low Growth <15%)

7.9x

median

Low-growth SaaS companies (<15% NTM growth)

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple (Mid Growth 15-30%)

18.8x

median

Mid-growth SaaS companies (15-30% NTM growth)

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple (SaaS Median)

18.1x

median

Public SaaS cohort as of January 2021

Free Cash Flow Margin (SaaS)

5percent

median

Public SaaS cohort

G&A as % of Revenue

18percent

median

Public SaaS cohort

Gross Margin (SaaS)

74percent

median

Public SaaS cohort

LTM Revenue Growth Rate

30percent

median

Public SaaS cohort

NTM Revenue Growth Rate

21percent

median

Public SaaS cohort

Net Revenue Retention

115percent

median

Public SaaS cohort

Operating Margin (SaaS)

-14percent

median

Public SaaS cohort

Public Cloud Workload Penetration (Current)

26percent

median

CIO-estimated application workloads across US and EU

Public Cloud Workload Penetration (Projected 2023)

42percent

median

CIO-estimated application workloads across US and EU

R&D as % of Revenue

25percent

median

Public SaaS cohort

Sales & Marketing as % of Revenue

44percent

median

Public SaaS cohort