cloudedjudgement.substack.com · 2021-11-05 · 1672d

Clouded Judgement

Cloud software companies demonstrated exceptional earnings growth in late 2021, with AWS and Azure accelerating to 39% and 48% YoY growth respectively, while a cohort of 20+ public SaaS companies beat consensus on revenue and forward guidance. The median public SaaS company trades at 16.1x NTM revenue with significant valuation variance based on growth rates (high-growth median 30.8x vs. low-growth median 7.1x), supported by strong unit economics including 74% gross margins and 119% net revenue retention.

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Metrics in this report

AWS Growth Rate

39percent YoY

October 2021, accelerating from 37%

AWS Revenue Run Rate

64billion dollars

October 2021, Amazon Web Services

Azure Growth Rate

48percent YoY

October 2021, accelerating from 45%

Azure Revenue Run Rate

35-40billion dollars

October 2021, Microsoft Azure

CAC Payback (Gross Margin Adjusted)

25months

median

Public SaaS companies

Free Cash Flow Margin

6percent

median

Public SaaS companies

General & Administrative Spend

19percent of revenue

median

Public SaaS companies

Gross Margin

74percent

median

Public SaaS companies

LTM Revenue Growth

32percent

median

Public SaaS companies

NTM Revenue Growth

24percent

median

Public SaaS companies

Net Revenue Retention

119percent

median

Public SaaS companies

Operating Margin

-16percent

median

Public SaaS companies

Research & Development Spend

26percent of revenue

median

Public SaaS companies

SaaS EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

16.1multiple

median

Public SaaS companies overall

SaaS EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

30.8multiple

median

High-growth SaaS (>30% projected NTM growth)

SaaS EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

14.5multiple

median

Mid-growth SaaS (15-30% projected NTM growth)

SaaS EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

7.1multiple

median

Low-growth SaaS (<15% projected NTM growth)

Sales & Marketing Spend

44percent of revenue

median

Public SaaS companies

Top 10 Highest-Valued SaaS EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

57.3multiple

average

Top 10 highest-valued public SaaS companies by revenue multiple

Top 10 Highest-Valued SaaS EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

53.0multiple

median

Top 10 highest-valued public SaaS companies by revenue multiple