cloudedjudgement.substack.com · 2022-01-14 · 1602d

Clouded Judgement

Weekly update on cloud software company valuations and trends showing overall median multiples have fallen below pre-COVID levels while high-growth software remains elevated at 52% above pre-COVID highs. Morgan Stanley CIO survey highlights robust software spending expectations (+5.0% in 2022), continued cloud migration (25% of workloads currently in public cloud, expected to reach 44% by 2024), with security software and cloud computing as top defensive IT priorities. Operating metrics analysis reveals median NRR of 119%, CAC payback of 25 months, and a Rule of 40 framework for evaluating SaaS health.

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Metrics in this report

CAC Payback Period

25months

median

Public SaaS companies on gross profit basis

CIO Software Spending Growth - 10-Year Historical Average

4.5percent

average

Pre-2020 benchmark from Morgan Stanley

CIO Software Spending Growth Expectation

5.0percent

target

2022 forecast from Morgan Stanley 4Q21 CIO survey

EV / NTM Revenue Multiple - High Growth

22.0multiple

median

SaaS companies with >30% projected NTM growth

EV / NTM Revenue Multiple - Low Growth

4.5multiple

median

SaaS companies with <15% projected NTM growth

EV / NTM Revenue Multiple - Mid Growth

9.5multiple

median

SaaS companies with 15-30% projected NTM growth

EV / NTM Revenue Multiple - Overall Median

10.5multiple

median

Public SaaS companies

EV / NTM Revenue Multiple - Top 5

33.1multiple

median

Top 5 highest-valued public SaaS companies

Free Cash Flow Margin

3percent

median

Public SaaS companies

G&A Expense Ratio

19percent of revenue

median

Public SaaS companies

Gross Margin

74percent

median

Public SaaS companies

LTM Revenue Growth Rate

34percent

median

Public SaaS companies

NTM Revenue Growth Rate

25percent

median

Public SaaS companies

Net Revenue Retention (NRR)

119percent

median

Public SaaS companies

Operating Margin

-19percent

median

Public SaaS companies

Public Cloud Workload Penetration

25percent of total application workloads

median

Current state as of 4Q21 CIO survey

Public Cloud Workload Penetration - Projected

44percent of total application workloads

target

CIO expectation by end of 2024

R&D Expense Ratio

26percent of revenue

median

Public SaaS companies

Sales & Marketing Expense Ratio

45percent of revenue

median

Public SaaS companies