cloudedjudgement.substack.com · 2025-11-20 · 196d

Clouded Judgement: The AI Platform Wars

The article argues that AI competition is shifting from model quality benchmarks to platform strategy, with Google, OpenAI, Anthropic, and Meta pursuing different approaches to build moats through distribution, integration, and ecosystem control. It includes detailed SaaS valuation multiples, operating metrics, and benchmarks for public cloud software companies, showing median valuations of 4.5x NTM revenue with significant variation by growth rate.

15 metrics· Cited 0× in the knowledge base ·Open source ↗

Metrics in this report

CAC Payback Period

32months

median

Public SaaS companies

EV / NTM Revenue Multiple

4.5multiple

median

Public SaaS companies overall

EV / NTM Revenue Multiple

23.1multiple

median

Top 10 public SaaS companies by valuation

EV / NTM Revenue Multiple

13.3multiple

median

High-growth SaaS (>22% projected NTM growth)

EV / NTM Revenue Multiple

6.0multiple

median

Mid-growth SaaS (15-22% projected NTM growth)

EV / NTM Revenue Multiple

3.4multiple

median

Low-growth SaaS (<15% projected NTM growth)

Free Cash Flow Margin

18percent

median

Public SaaS companies

General & Administrative Spending

15percent of revenue

median

Public SaaS companies

Gross Margin

76percent

median

Public SaaS companies

LTM Revenue Growth

14percent

median

Public SaaS companies

NTM Revenue Growth

12percent

median

Public SaaS companies

Net Dollar Retention

108percent

median

Public SaaS companies

Operating Margin

-2percent

median

Public SaaS companies

Research & Development Spending

24percent of revenue

median

Public SaaS companies

Sales & Marketing Spending

37percent of revenue

median

Public SaaS companies