cloudedjudgement.substack.com · 2025-11-14 · 202d

Clouded Judgement: The AI Factory and SaaS Valuation Multiples

The article discusses the emergence of 'AI Factories'—integrated systems where companies build, fine-tune, deploy, and continuously optimize their own AI models using open-source infrastructure—and provides comprehensive SaaS valuation analysis showing median 4.8x EV/NTM revenue multiples with significant variation by growth rate. Current SaaS benchmarks reveal median 12% NTM growth, 76% gross margins, 108% net retention, and a Rule of 40 median of 70 across public companies.

15 metrics· Cited 0× in the knowledge base ·Open source ↗

Metrics in this report

CAC Payback Period

31months

median

Public SaaS companies

EV / NTM Revenue Multiple

4.8x

median

All public SaaS companies

EV / NTM Revenue Multiple

14.8x

median

High-growth SaaS (>22% NTM growth)

EV / NTM Revenue Multiple

6.5x

median

Mid-growth SaaS (15-22% NTM growth)

EV / NTM Revenue Multiple

3.7x

median

Low-growth SaaS (<15% NTM growth)

FCF Margin

19percent

median

Public SaaS companies

G&A as % of Revenue

15percent

median

Public SaaS companies

Gross Margin

76percent

median

Public SaaS companies

LTM Revenue Growth Rate

14percent

median

Public SaaS companies

NTM Revenue Growth Rate

12percent

median

Public SaaS companies

Net Dollar Retention

108percent

median

Public SaaS companies

Operating Margin

-2percent

median

Public SaaS companies

R&D as % of Revenue

24percent

median

Public SaaS companies

Rule of 40 Score

70points

median

Top 10 public SaaS companies

S&M as % of Revenue

37percent

median

Public SaaS companies