cloudedjudgement.substack.com · 2024-11-15 · 566d

Clouded Judgement: Market Rotation from Profitability Back to Growth

Software companies have successfully achieved FCF profitability after a 2-year focus on efficiency, but median growth rates have declined significantly from 31% (2020) to 12% (current). Market valuation signals and leading indicators suggest a rotation back toward rewarding growth, driven by AI investment cycles and improving macro conditions, with the critical question being whether revenue growth will materialize to justify these investments.

15 metrics· Cited 0× in the knowledge base ·Open source ↗

Metrics in this report

Customer Acquisition Cost Payback

38months

median

Public SaaS companies (GM-adjusted)

EV / NTM Revenue Multiple

5.9x

median

Overall public SaaS market

EV / NTM Revenue Multiple

19.0x

median

Top 5 SaaS companies by valuation

EV / NTM Revenue Multiple

8.7x

median

High-growth SaaS (>27% NTM growth)

EV / NTM Revenue Multiple

10.6x

median

Mid-growth SaaS (15-27% NTM growth)

EV / NTM Revenue Multiple

4.7x

median

Low-growth SaaS (<15% NTM growth)

Free Cash Flow Margin

15percent

median

Public SaaS companies (LTM)

General & Administrative Expense

17percent of revenue

median

Public SaaS companies

Gross Margin

76percent

median

Public SaaS companies

Net Revenue Retention

110percent

median

Public SaaS companies

Operating Margin

-7percent

median

Public SaaS companies

Research & Development Expense

25percent of revenue

median

Public SaaS companies

Revenue Growth Rate

12percent

median

Public SaaS companies (NTM)

Revenue Growth Rate

15percent

median

Public SaaS companies (LTM)

Sales & Marketing Expense

40percent of revenue

median

Public SaaS companies