cloudedjudgement.substack.com · 2025-01-10
· 510d
Clouded Judgement: Rising Rates and SaaS Valuation Multiples in a High-Growth Environment
The article analyzes why the 10-year Treasury yield has risen to 4.7% despite Fed rate cuts, driven by sticky inflation expectations, strong economic growth, and inflationary pressures from Trump tariffs. It provides detailed SaaS valuation benchmarks showing median revenue multiples of 6.2x overall and 18.8x for top-tier companies, with commentary on how rising rates impact software company valuations and investor risk appetite.
Metrics in this report
10-Year Treasury Yield
4.7percent
As of January 10, 2025
CAC Payback Period
37months
median
SaaS companies using GM-adjusted methodology
EV / NTM Revenue Multiple
6.2x
median
Overall SaaS market
EV / NTM Revenue Multiple
18.8x
median
Top 5 SaaS companies by valuation
Free Cash Flow Margin
16percent
median
SaaS companies
G&A as % of Revenue
17percent
median
SaaS companies
Gross Margin
76percent
median
SaaS companies
LTM Revenue Growth Rate
14percent
median
SaaS companies
NTM Revenue Growth Rate
12percent
median
SaaS companies
Net Retention Rate
109percent
median
SaaS companies
Operating Margin
-7percent
median
SaaS companies
R&D as % of Revenue
24percent
median
SaaS companies
S&M as % of Revenue
40percent
median
SaaS companies