cloudedjudgement.substack.com · 2025-01-10 · 510d

Clouded Judgement: Rising Rates and SaaS Valuation Multiples in a High-Growth Environment

The article analyzes why the 10-year Treasury yield has risen to 4.7% despite Fed rate cuts, driven by sticky inflation expectations, strong economic growth, and inflationary pressures from Trump tariffs. It provides detailed SaaS valuation benchmarks showing median revenue multiples of 6.2x overall and 18.8x for top-tier companies, with commentary on how rising rates impact software company valuations and investor risk appetite.

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Metrics in this report

10-Year Treasury Yield

4.7percent

As of January 10, 2025

CAC Payback Period

37months

median

SaaS companies using GM-adjusted methodology

EV / NTM Revenue Multiple

6.2x

median

Overall SaaS market

EV / NTM Revenue Multiple

18.8x

median

Top 5 SaaS companies by valuation

Free Cash Flow Margin

16percent

median

SaaS companies

G&A as % of Revenue

17percent

median

SaaS companies

Gross Margin

76percent

median

SaaS companies

LTM Revenue Growth Rate

14percent

median

SaaS companies

NTM Revenue Growth Rate

12percent

median

SaaS companies

Net Retention Rate

109percent

median

SaaS companies

Operating Margin

-7percent

median

SaaS companies

R&D as % of Revenue

24percent

median

SaaS companies

S&M as % of Revenue

40percent

median

SaaS companies