cloudedjudgement.substack.com · 2025-10-31 · 216d

Clouded Judgement: Cloud Giants Report Q3 2025 – Capacity, AI Demand, and SaaS Valuation Multiples

This analysis examines Q3 2025 earnings reports from AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud, revealing sustained capacity constraints driven by GPU demand and AI infrastructure buildout, with all three hyperscalers raising capital expenditure guidance. The article provides detailed SaaS benchmarking data on valuation multiples, operating metrics, and financial health indicators across the industry, showing median NTM revenue multiples of 5.1x overall and 26.3x for high-growth companies.

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Metrics in this report

AWS Revenue Run Rate

132billion USD

Q3 2025, growing 20% YoY

Azure Revenue Run Rate

93billion USD

Q3 2025 estimate, growing 39% YoY

Customer Acquisition Cost Payback Period

32months

median

Public SaaS companies (gross margin adjusted)

Free Cash Flow Margin

18percent

median

Public SaaS companies

General & Administrative Spend

15percent of revenue

median

Public SaaS companies

Google Cloud Revenue Run Rate

61billion USD

Q3 2025, growing 34% YoY

Gross Margin

76percent

median

Public SaaS companies

LTM Revenue Growth Rate

14percent

median

Public SaaS companies

NTM Revenue Growth Rate

12percent

median

Public SaaS companies

Net Revenue Retention

108percent

median

Public SaaS companies

Operating Margin

2percent

median

Public SaaS companies

Research & Development Spend

24percent of revenue

median

Public SaaS companies

Sales & Marketing Spend

37percent of revenue

median

Public SaaS companies

Valuation Multiple (EV/NTM Revenue)

5.1x

median

All public SaaS companies

Valuation Multiple (EV/NTM Revenue)

24.9x

median

Top 5 SaaS companies by valuation

Valuation Multiple (EV/NTM Revenue)

26.3x

median

High-growth SaaS companies (>25% NTM growth)

Valuation Multiple (EV/NTM Revenue)

7.5x

median

Mid-growth SaaS companies (15-25% NTM growth)

Valuation Multiple (EV/NTM Revenue)

4.0x

median

Low-growth SaaS companies (<15% NTM growth)