cloudedjudgement.substack.com · 2025-10-24 · 223d

Clouded Judgement: The Evolution of Benchmarks in AI and SaaS Valuation

The article argues that traditional AI model benchmarks are becoming obsolete as performance gaps narrow, paralleling Google's shift from index size to user experience. Simultaneously, benchmarks are evolving into domain-specific reward functions that train models rather than measure them. The piece concludes with comprehensive SaaS valuation data showing median 5.2x EV/NTM revenue multiple and median 108% net retention, with detailed operating metrics and Rule of 40 analysis across public cloud software companies.

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Metrics in this report

CAC Payback Period

32months

median

Public SaaS companies, gross margin-adjusted

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

5.2multiple

median

Overall public SaaS industry

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

26.8multiple

median

High-growth SaaS (>25% NTM growth)

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

7.7multiple

median

Mid-growth SaaS (15-25% NTM growth)

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

4.0multiple

median

Low-growth SaaS (<15% NTM growth)

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

25.7multiple

average

Top 10 highest-valued public SaaS companies

FCF Margin

18percent

median

Public SaaS companies

G&A as % of Revenue

15percent

median

Public SaaS companies

Gross Margin

76percent

median

Public SaaS companies

NTM Revenue Growth Rate

12percent

median

Public SaaS companies

Net Dollar Retention

108percent

median

Public SaaS companies

Operating Margin

-2percent

median

Public SaaS companies

R&D as % of Revenue

24percent

median

Public SaaS companies

S&M as % of Revenue

37percent

median

Public SaaS companies