      cloudedjudgement.substack.com · 2025-12-12
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Clouded Judgement

This article analyzes whether cloud software companies are currently cheap or fairly valued by comparing current NTM revenue multiples (5.0x median) to historical averages (7.8x from 2010-2020) and adjusting for interest rate changes. The author provides detailed operating metrics and valuation benchmarks for public SaaS companies while offering a nuanced view of near-term recession risks versus long-term innovation opportunities.

18 metrics· Cited 0× in the knowledge base ·Open source ↗

Metrics in this report

10-Year Treasury Yield

4.2percent

current

At time of article publication

10-Year Treasury Yield

2.3percent

average

2010-2020 historical period

CAC Payback Period

33months

median

Public cloud software companies, gross margin-adjusted

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

5.0multiple

median

Public cloud software companies, current period

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

7.8multiple

average

Public cloud software companies, 2010-2020 historical

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

15.4multiple

median

Top 5 highest-valued public cloud software companies

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

10.4multiple

median

High-growth SaaS (>30% NTM growth)

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

5.1multiple

median

Mid-growth SaaS (15-30% NTM growth)

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

2.8multiple

median

Low-growth SaaS (<15% NTM growth)

FCF Margin