cloudedjudgement.substack.com · 2023-10-20 · 958d

Clouded Judgement: Hyperscaler Cloud Growth & SaaS Valuation Multiples Analysis

This weekly cloud software analysis examines hyperscaler earnings expectations (AWS, Azure, Google Cloud) against a backdrop of rising 10Y Treasury yields at 5%, and provides comprehensive SaaS valuation multiple benchmarks across growth tiers. The article reveals that despite AI hype, enterprise cloud adoption may lag expectations, while SaaS median valuations cluster around 5.7x NTM revenue with significant differentiation by growth profile.

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Metrics in this report

10Y Treasury Yield

5.0percent

Current market environment as of October 20, 2023

10Y Treasury Yield Historical Average

2.5percent

average

2010-2020 period

AWS YoY Growth

12-13percent

median

Q2 2023 actual (12%) and Q3 2023 consensus expectations (12-13%)

Azure YoY Growth

27percent

median

Q2 2023 actual and Q3 2023 consensus expectations

CAC Payback Period

35months

median

Gross margin-adjusted CAC payback for public SaaS

FCF Margin

7percent

median

Public SaaS cohort

G&A as % of Revenue

16percent

median

Public SaaS cohort

Google Cloud YoY Growth

26-28percent

median

Q2 2023 actual (28%) and Q3 2023 consensus expectations (26%)

Gross Margin

75percent

median

Public SaaS cohort

Median LTM Growth Rate

21percent

median

Public SaaS cohort

Median NTM Growth Rate

15percent

median

Public SaaS cohort

Net Revenue Retention

114percent

median

Public SaaS cohort

Operating Margin

-17percent

median

Public SaaS cohort

R&D as % of Revenue

27percent

median

Public SaaS cohort

S&M as % of Revenue

42percent

median

Public SaaS cohort

SaaS Valuation Multiple (High Growth >30%)

11.8x NTM Revenue

median

Companies with >30% projected NTM growth

SaaS Valuation Multiple (Low Growth <15%)

3.6x NTM Revenue

median

Companies with <15% projected NTM growth

SaaS Valuation Multiple (Median)

5.7x NTM Revenue

median

Public SaaS cohort

SaaS Valuation Multiple (Mid Growth 15-30%)

8.2x NTM Revenue

median

Companies with 15-30% projected NTM growth

SaaS Valuation Multiple (Top 5)

14.3x NTM Revenue

median

Top 5 highest-valued SaaS companies