cloudedjudgement.substack.com · 2025-10-17 · 230d

Clouded Judgement: From Data Quantity to Data Quality

The article explores the evolution of AI scaling laws, moving from pre-training compute and internet data to inference-time compute and domain-specific expert knowledge (PhD-level data). It argues that frontier data collection in specialized domains like finance, law, and medicine represents the next frontier for AI model improvement, creating significant market opportunities for data collection and labeling companies. The piece includes detailed SaaS valuation multiples and operating metrics benchmarks for cloud software companies.

15 metrics· Cited 0× in the knowledge base ·Open source ↗

Metrics in this report

CAC Payback Period

32months

median

SaaS market

EV / NTM Revenue Multiple

4.9xmultiple

median

Overall SaaS market

EV / NTM Revenue Multiple

16.0xmultiple

median

Top 10 SaaS companies by valuation

EV / NTM Revenue Multiple

27.4xmultiple

median

High-growth SaaS (>25% NTM growth)

EV / NTM Revenue Multiple

7.3xmultiple

median

Mid-growth SaaS (15-25% NTM growth)

EV / NTM Revenue Multiple

3.8xmultiple

median

Low-growth SaaS (<15% NTM growth)

FCF Margin

18%percent

median

SaaS market

G&A as % of Revenue

15%percent

median

SaaS market

Gross Margin

76%percent

median

SaaS market

LTM Revenue Growth Rate

14%percent

median

SaaS market

NTM Revenue Growth Rate

12%percent

median

SaaS market

Net Dollar Retention

108%percent

median

SaaS market

Operating Margin

-2%percent

median

SaaS market

R&D as % of Revenue

24%percent

median

SaaS market

S&M as % of Revenue

37%percent

median

SaaS market