cloudedjudgement.substack.com · 2023-10-13 · 965d

Clouded Judgement: 2024 Budget Expectations & SaaS Valuation Multiples

This analysis examines CIO IT budget expectations for 2024, showing modest growth projections (3.4% vs historical 4%) with near-term caution offsetting long-term AI-driven optimism. The article provides comprehensive SaaS valuation multiples, operating metrics benchmarks, and Rule of 40 analysis across public cloud software companies, highlighting the disconnect between growth rates and revenue multiples.

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Metrics in this report

CAC Payback

35months

median

Public SaaS companies

CIO Budget Revision Up-to-Down Ratio

0.5ratio

current

1-year outlook expectations Q3 2023

CIO Budget Revision Up-to-Down Ratio

6.3ratio

forward

3-year outlook expectations Q3 2023

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple - High Growth

12.3x

median

SaaS companies with >30% projected NTM growth

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple - Low Growth

3.7x

median

SaaS companies with <15% projected NTM growth

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple - Mid Growth

8.5x

median

SaaS companies with 15-30% projected NTM growth

FCF Margin

7percent

median

Public SaaS companies

General & Administrative Spending

16percent of revenue

median

Public SaaS companies

Gross Margin

75percent

median

Public SaaS companies

IT Budget Growth Rate

3.4percent

expected

2024 CIO expectations per Morgan Stanley survey

IT Budget Growth Rate

4.0percent

average

Historical long-term annual IT budget growth

Net Revenue Retention

114percent

median

Public SaaS companies

Operating Margin

-17percent

median

Public SaaS companies

Research & Development Spending

27percent of revenue

median

Public SaaS companies

SaaS Median Valuation Multiple

5.5x

median

Overall SaaS EV/NTM revenue October 2023

SaaS Top 10 Valuation Multiple

13.2x

average

Top 10 SaaS companies EV/NTM revenue

Sales & Marketing Spending

42percent of revenue

median

Public SaaS companies