cloudedjudgement.substack.com · 2025-10-10 · 237d

Clouded Judgement: OpenAI's App Store Moment and the Rise of the AI Cloud

OpenAI's launch of ChatGPT apps and an Apps SDK represents a transformational platform shift comparable to the early iPhone App Store, positioning the company as a potential cloud hyperscaler for AI workloads rather than just a model or product company. The article analyzes this architectural evolution alongside detailed SaaS valuation multiples, growth rates, and operating metrics from top public software companies, arguing that generational companies redefine themselves by stacking S-Curve opportunities.

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Metrics in this report

CAC Payback Period

32months

median

Public SaaS companies

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

30.2x

median

High-growth SaaS companies (>25% NTM growth)

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

7.4x

median

Mid-growth SaaS companies (15-25% NTM growth)

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

4.0x

median

Low-growth SaaS companies (<15% NTM growth)

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

5.1x

median

Overall SaaS public company market

FCF Margin

18percent

median

Public SaaS companies

G&A Spend % of Revenue

15percent

median

Public SaaS companies

Gross Margin

76percent

median

Public SaaS companies

NTM Growth Rate

12percent

median

Public SaaS companies

Net Retention Rate

108percent

median

Public SaaS companies

Operating Margin

-2percent

median

Public SaaS companies

R&D Spend % of Revenue

24percent

median

Public SaaS companies

S&M Spend % of Revenue

37percent

median

Public SaaS companies