cloudedjudgement.substack.com · 2020-06-25 · 2170d

Agora: Benchmarking the F1 Data

This article analyzes Agora's F1 filing for its US IPO, benchmarking its financial metrics against comparable cloud/SaaS IPOs and projecting a $2.9B valuation based on 120% forward growth and a 15x revenue multiple. The analysis highlights Agora's superior unit economics including exceptional net revenue retention, CAC payback, and gross margins despite the uncertainty created by COVID-19 demand spikes.

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Metrics in this report

Forward Revenue (NTM)

191millions USD

Agora projection at 120% growth assumption

IPO Price Range Midpoint Valuation

1.7billions USD

Agora company-indicated range at $16-$18 per share

Monthly Active Applications

10000count

Agora in March 2020; defined as using video or voice product for >= 1 minute in given month

Projected Analyst Valuation

2.9billions USD

Agora at 15x multiple on $191M NTM revenue

Revenue Growth (YoY)

166percent

Agora Q1 2020 (March quarter) pre-COVID normalized baseline

Revenue Growth (YoY)

50percent

Agora pre-COVID normalized quarterly growth rate

Revenue Multiple

17multiple

peer benchmark

Twilio trading multiple at IPO comparison point

Revenue Multiple

15multiple

Agora assigned valuation multiple

Trailing Twelve Months Revenue

87millions USD

Agora at pre-IPO; as of filing date