cloudedjudgement.substack.com · 2023-04-12 · 1149d

Clouded Judgement: A Look Back at Q4 '22 Public Cloud Software Earnings

This comprehensive analysis of Q4 2022 earnings for 63 public cloud software companies reveals a deteriorating performance environment, with fewer companies beating consensus estimates and guidance increasingly falling below expectations. The author evaluates companies across key SaaS metrics including net revenue retention, CAC payback, growth rates, and FCF margins, while presenting forward-looking CIO budget sentiment data suggesting potential market stabilization. The analysis provides a framework for private SaaS entrepreneurs to benchmark their performance against public company standards.

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Metrics in this report

CIO Budget Up-to-Down Revision Ratio

0.4ratio

median

Q1 2023 Morgan Stanley CIO Survey

Companies Guiding Above Consensus

44percent

median

Q4 2022 public cloud software

Gross Margin Adjusted CAC Payback

12months

best-in-class

Private SaaS companies

Gross Margin Adjusted CAC Payback

24months

target

Good performance for private SaaS companies

Median Revenue Beat Magnitude

2.8percent

median

Q4 2022 public cloud software earnings

Net Revenue Retention

130percent

best-in-class

Enterprise-focused SaaS companies

Net Revenue Retention

120percent

best-in-class

SMB-focused SaaS companies like Bill.com

Net Revenue Retention

115percent

target

Good performance for enterprise SaaS

Revenue Beat vs Consensus

90percent

median

Q4 2022 public cloud software companies