cloudedjudgement.substack.com · 2023-12-21 · 896d

Clouded Judgement: A Look Back at Q3 '23 Public Cloud Software Earnings

This comprehensive analysis of Q3 2023 earnings for 63 public cloud software companies reveals that while the sector is stabilizing after two years of decline, growth momentum remains muted with median revenue beats falling to 1.6% and net revenue retention starting to trail. The author provides a data-driven framework for evaluating SaaS business health across five key metrics: revenue beats, forward guidance, growth rates, FCF margins, and net revenue retention, with benchmarks tailored for both enterprise and SMB-focused businesses.

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Metrics in this report

Beat Consensus Percentage

89percent

median

Q3 2023 public cloud software companies

Gross Margin Adjusted CAC Payback

12months

best-in-class

Private SaaS companies

Gross Margin Adjusted CAC Payback

24months

good

Private SaaS companies

Guidance Raise (Q4 relative to consensus)

51percent

median

Q3 2023 public cloud software companies

Historical Median Guidance Raise

2percent

target

Historical SaaS benchmark (2-3% range)

Net Revenue Retention

130percent

best-in-class

Enterprise-focused SaaS companies

Net Revenue Retention

115percent

good

Enterprise-focused SaaS companies

Net Revenue Retention

120percent

best-in-class

SMB-focused SaaS companies

Revenue Beat vs. Consensus Estimates

1.6percent

median

Q3 2023 public cloud software companies

Year-over-Year Net New ARR Growth

1percent

median

Q3 2023 public cloud software universe