cloudedjudgement.substack.com · 2021-12-29 · 1618d

Clouded Judgement: Q3 2021 Public Cloud Software Earnings Analysis

Analysis of Q3 2021 earnings for 67 public cloud software companies, evaluating performance across key SaaS metrics including revenue beats, guidance raises, growth rates, FCF margins, net revenue retention, and CAC payback. The article identifies Datadog and Snowflake as elite performers and frames valuations, which remain elevated relative to historical standards despite recent compression from peak multiples.

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Metrics in this report

FCF Margin

-1percent

median

Public cloud software companies, Q3 2021

FCF Margin

23percent

top-decile

Public cloud software companies, Q3 2021

Gross Margin Adjusted CAC Payback

26months

median

Public cloud software companies, Q3 2021

Gross Margin Adjusted CAC Payback

17months

top-quartile

Public cloud software companies, Q3 2021

Gross Margin Adjusted CAC Payback

9months

top-decile

Public cloud software companies, Q3 2021

Gross Margin Adjusted CAC Payback

12months

best-in-class

Private SaaS companies

Net Revenue Retention

120percent

median

Public cloud software companies, Q3 2021

Net Revenue Retention

125percent

top-quartile

Public cloud software companies, Q3 2021

Net Revenue Retention

130percent

top-decile

Public cloud software companies, Q3 2021

Net Revenue Retention

130percent

best-in-class

Enterprise SaaS companies

Net Revenue Retention

115percent

minimum

Good-performing enterprise SaaS companies

Net Revenue Retention

120percent

best-in-class

SMB-focused SaaS companies

Revenue Beat vs. Consensus

4.3percent

median

Public cloud software companies, Q3 2021

Revenue Multiple (EV/NTM Revenue)

12.7x

median

All public cloud software companies, Q3 2021

Revenue Multiple (EV/NTM Revenue)

26.6x

median

High-growth SaaS companies (>30% projected NTM growth), September 2021

Revenue Multiple (EV/NTM Revenue)

11.9x

median

Mid-growth SaaS companies (15-30% projected NTM growth), September 2021

Revenue Multiple (EV/NTM Revenue)

5.5x

median

Low-growth SaaS companies (<15% projected NTM growth), September 2021

Year-over-Year Revenue Growth

35percent

median

Public cloud software companies, Q3 2021

Year-over-Year Revenue Growth

50percent

top-quartile

Public cloud software companies, Q3 2021

Year-over-Year Revenue Growth

68percent

top-decile

Public cloud software companies, Q3 2021