cloudedjudgement.substack.com · 2020-09-21 · 2082d

Clouded Judgement: A Look Back at Q2 Public SaaS Earnings

This analysis examines Q2 2020 SaaS earnings across 57 public companies, revealing that despite expectations of accelerating digital transformations, most businesses experienced revenue growth deceleration driven by buyer cost-control measures and pushed pipelines rather than reduced demand. The article provides detailed benchmarking on key SaaS metrics including net revenue retention, CAC payback, growth rates, and valuation multiples, identifying Zoom, Shopify, and Fastly as clear Covid beneficiaries while most peers maintained or declined growth rates.

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Metrics in this report

Gross Margin Adjusted CAC Payback (Private SaaS)

12months

best-in-class

Private SaaS companies; threshold for best-in-class

Gross Margin Adjusted CAC Payback (Private SaaS)

24months

minimum

Private SaaS companies; above this is subpar

IT Budget Allocation to SaaS/IaaS/PaaS (1-Year Expectation, July 2020)

25percent

average

Credit Suisse CIO survey; company IT budgets

IT Budget Allocation to SaaS/IaaS/PaaS (Current, July 2020)

18percent

average

Credit Suisse CIO survey; company IT budgets

Net Revenue Retention (Enterprise SaaS)

130percent

best-in-class

Enterprise-focused SaaS companies

Net Revenue Retention (Enterprise SaaS)

115percent

minimum

Enterprise-focused SaaS companies; below this is subpar

Net Revenue Retention (SMB SaaS)

120percent

best-in-class

SMB-focused SaaS companies like Bill.com

Q2 2020 Change in 2021 Consensus Revenue Estimates

1percent

median

Post-earnings vs. pre-earnings analyst estimates

Q2 2020 Consensus Revenue Estimate Beat

4.1percent

median

57 public SaaS companies

Q2 2020 Median Gross Margin Adjusted CAC Payback

22months

median

Public SaaS companies reporting subscription revenue

Q2 2020 Median Net Revenue Retention

117percent

median

Public SaaS companies reporting NRR

Q2 2020 Median Revenue Growth Rate

28percent

median

57 public SaaS companies YoY

Q2 2020 Top Decile CAC Payback

15months

top-decile

Public SaaS companies reporting subscription revenue

Q2 2020 Top Decile Net Revenue Retention

132percent

top-decile

Public SaaS companies reporting NRR

Q2 2020 Top Decile Revenue Growth Rate

62percent

top-decile

57 public SaaS companies YoY

Q2 2020 Top Quartile CAC Payback

19months

top-quartile

Public SaaS companies reporting subscription revenue

Q2 2020 Top Quartile Net Revenue Retention

125percent

top-quartile

Public SaaS companies reporting NRR

Q2 2020 Top Quartile Revenue Growth Rate

41percent

top-quartile

57 public SaaS companies YoY

Stock Price Performance vs. Market Benchmark (2 Weeks Pre-Earnings)

4.5percent

median

57 public SaaS companies market-adjusted returns