      cloudedjudgement.substack.com · 2024-10-03
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Clouded Judgement: Q2 2024 Public Cloud Software Earnings Analysis

Analysis of Q2 2024 earnings for 62 public cloud software companies, examining beat/raise dynamics, revenue growth, net revenue retention, CAC payback, and FCF margins. The article reveals a weakening earnings environment with declining net new ARR compared to prior year, 90% of companies beating consensus (down from historical 92-100%), and modest guidance raises of 0.1% above consensus. The author provides benchmarking frameworks for SaaS metrics to help entrepreneurs and investors evaluate business health.

11 metrics· Cited 0× in the knowledge base ·Open source ↗

Metrics in this report

Companies Guiding Above Consensus

55%percent

median

Q3 2024 cloud software companies (up from 47% in Q1)

Consensus Beat Rate

90%percent

median

Q2 2024 cloud software companies beating revenue consensus

Gross Margin Adjusted CAC Payback

<12months

best-in-class

Private SaaS companies

Gross Margin Adjusted CAC Payback

12-24months

good

Private SaaS companies

Gross Margin Adjusted CAC Payback

>24months

subpar

Private SaaS companies

Guidance Raise Above Consensus

0.1%percent

median

Q3 2024 guidance vs. consensus for cloud software companies

Net Revenue Retention (NRR)

>130%percent

best-in-class

Enterprise SaaS businesses

Net Revenue Retention (NRR)

115-130%percent

good

Enterprise SaaS businesses

Net Revenue Retention (NRR)

<115%percent

subpar

Enterprise SaaS businesses

Net Revenue Retention (NRR)

>120%percent

best-in-class

SMB-focused SaaS businesses

Revenue Beat vs. Consensus

1.6%percent

median

Q2 2024 cloud software companies (62 company sample)