Musings on Markets · 2025-01-28
· 492d
Central Banks, Market Interest Rates, and Macro Fundamentals: 2024 Analysis
This analysis examines 2024 treasury and corporate bond rate movements, challenging the conventional wisdom that central banks directly control market interest rates. The author argues that macro fundamentals—inflation and real GDP growth—are the primary drivers of interest rates, with central banks having limited power to alter market trajectories despite policy actions.
Metrics in this report
10-Year Treasury Bond Annual Return
-1.64%
nominal
2024
10-Year Treasury Rate
4.58%
year-end
2024
10-Year Treasury Rate
3.88%
year-start
2024
10-Year Treasury Real Return
-4.27%
inflation-adjusted
2024
3-Month Treasury Bill Rate
4.37%
year-end
2024
3-Month Treasury Bill Rate
5.40%
year-start
2024
Inflation Rate
2.75%
annual
2024