Musings on Markets · 2025-01-26 · 494d

US Equity Market Analysis 2024: Sector, Size, and Value Premium Divergence

Analysis of 2024 US equity market returns reveals highly concentrated gains with the Mag Seven companies accounting for nearly all market cap increases, while the traditional small cap premium has reversed into a large cap premium over the past 50+ years. Performance variations across sectors, market capitalizations, and valuation deciles demonstrate that market-wide gains mask significant disparities in underlying equity segment performance.

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Metrics in this report

Mag Seven Market Cap Addition 2014-2024

15.8$ trillion

total

10-year market cap increase for Mag Seven companies

Mag Seven Market Cap Increase 2024

5.6$ trillion

total

Annual market cap change for Apple, Amazon, Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla

Mag Seven Share of Decade Market Cap Growth

40%

proportion

Mag Seven as percentage of all US stock market cap increase 2014-2024

Small Cap Lag vs Large Cap 20-Year

-4.0 to -4.5%

compounded annual

Last 20 years of small cap underperformance

Small Cap Premium 1927-2024 (Equally Weighted)

6.69%

compounded annual

Difference in returns between lowest and highest market cap deciles

Small Cap Premium 1927-2024 (Value Weighted)

2.07%

compounded annual

Difference in returns between lowest and highest market cap deciles

Small Cap Premium Valuation Adjustment

3 to 5%

range

Traditional cost of equity augmentation for small companies

Technology Sector 10-Year Market Cap Addition

13.6$ trillion

total

10-year technology sector market cap increase

Technology Sector 5-Year Market Cap Addition

11.3$ trillion

total

5-year technology sector market cap increase

Technology Sector Market Cap Addition 2024

4.63$ trillion

total

Annual technology sector market cap increase

Top Decile Market Cap Share 2024

94%

proportion

Top 10% of stocks as percentage of total market cap increase

Top Percentile Market Cap Share 2024

74%

proportion

Top 60 stocks as percentage of total market cap increase