AI Disruption Scenarios: Evaluating Economic Outcomes from Doomsday to Benign

This analysis examines competing AI scenario assessments, particularly the Citrini Research report predicting significant job losses and market decline by 2028, against counterarguments from Goldman Sachs, Moody's, JP Morgan, and Citadel that project modest disruption. The article critiques the lack of probabilistic frameworks and likelihood assessments in scenario analysis, advocating for probabilistic approaches over point estimates.