Tomasz Tunguz Blog · 2024-01-07 · 879d

VC Exit Market Volatility: Timing Liquidity Windows in Startup Sales

Startup exits depend heavily on market liquidity conditions rather than company fundamentals, with VC exit values experiencing dramatic 77%+ annual swings. The article emphasizes the critical importance of timing exits during high-liquidity periods, comparing 2021's favorable market to 2023's worst year since the 2008 financial crisis.

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Metrics in this report

Annual Liquidity Value Change Probability

82%%

probability

VC exit market, any given year

Magnitude of Annual Liquidity Swings

77%+%

threshold

startup exit valuations

Years Since Worst Exit Market

14years

since 2008 GFC

2023 exit market performance