Kellblog · 2019-04-01 · 2621d

SaaS Market Valuation Analysis: Is Another Market Correction Imminent?

Dave Kellogg analyzes whether SaaS stocks face another significant correction by examining enterprise value to forward sales multiples. While SaaS stocks have appreciated 342-385% since 2016, current multiples are only 18% above historical medians, suggesting valuations are less frothy than price appreciation alone would indicate, though downside risks remain from growth deceleration.

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Metrics in this report

Bessemer Emerging Cloud Index Appreciation

385%

over 3 years 2 months

SaaS market index

Rule of 40 R-squared

0.32coefficient

current

Performance prediction accuracy

S&P 500 P/E Ratio

21multiple

current as of April 2019

Broad market valuation

SaaS EV/NTM-Sales Multiple - Current Average

8.25multiple

mean

SaaS sector as of April 2019

SaaS EV/NTM-Sales Multiple - Historical High

10multiple

maximum

April 2014

SaaS EV/NTM-Sales Multiple - Historical Low

4multiple

minimum

January 2016

SaaS EV/NTM-Sales Multiple - Median Historical

7multiple

median

SaaS sector

SaaS Revenue Growth Range

25-30%

estimated average

SaaS coverage universe

Workday Stock Price Appreciation

342%

over 3 years 2 months

Individual SaaS stock