Tomasz Tunguz Blog · 2023-05-22 · 1109d

Why SaaS Valuation Multiples Won't Recover Despite Top Stocks' Surge

While top-tier SaaS companies like MongoDB, Snowflake, and DataDog have seen forward multiples surge 42-112% since early 2023, this rally is concentrated among only the top 5 growth stocks and hasn't exceeded 2017 median levels. Despite weak earnings reports and cautious outlooks across the sector, the author argues that without broad-based public market multiple expansion, private market valuations will remain depressed.

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Metrics in this report

Forward Valuation Multiple Increase

42-112%

range

Top 5 SaaS stocks (MongoDB, Snowflake, DataDog, Cloudflare, ServiceNow) year-to-date 2023

Interest Rate Cut Expectation

1.0-1.25%

range

Bond market pricing for next 24 months

SaaS Cohort Multiple Level

2017median baseline year

median

Top quartile SaaS stocks valuation level