Tomasz Tunguz Blog · 2022-08-19
· 1385d
Fundraising Market Analysis 2022: Valuation Corrections and Recovery Timeline
Tomasz Tunguz analyzes the 2022 fundraising market downturn resulting from Fed rate hikes combating inflation. He projects a 40-60% valuation decline by Q3/Q4 2022 compared to Q1 2022, with market recovery potentially beginning in early 2023 based on historical recession patterns.
Metrics in this report
Founder Expected ARR Reduction
30%
expected
startups in 2022
Founder Expected Valuation Decline
10%
surveyed expectation
private company founders
Historical Recession Duration
14months
average
recessions in 1940s, 1970s, 1980s, 1990s
Private Company Revaluation Frequency
12-18months
interval
marking to market
Projected Private Market Valuation Decline
40-60%
predicted range
Q3/Q4 2022 vs Q1 2022
Public Tech Company Valuation Decline
60-70%
range
public technology sector 2022
Round Volume Decline
20+%
minimum
venture funding rounds
Stock Market Recovery Lead Time
154days
average
before recession end
US Money Supply Increase
30+%
cumulative
since 2008 through money printing
Venture Capital Dry Powder
220$B
total
uninvested VC capital available