Tomasz Tunguz Blog · 2022-12-18 · 1264d

2023 Tech Industry Predictions: ML, Web3, Private Equity, and Fundraising Market Reset

Tomasz Tunguz predicts 2023 will be a 'year of sobriety' marked by machine learning integration into SaaS, continued web3 consolidation, significant private equity M&A activity, and a reset in venture fundraising valuations. The predictions reflect a transition from the exuberant 2021 market and chaotic 2022 toward more disciplined growth metrics and lower entry/exit valuations across funding stages.

11 metrics· Cited 0× in the knowledge base ·Open source ↗

Metrics in this report

Blog Readership

150k+

founders and operators

newsletter subscribers

Current Forward Software Multiples

5.8x

baseline at time of writing

public software companies

Fed Funds Rate Target

5.0%

at

end of 2023 prediction

Flat/Down Round Percentage

30%

predicted 2023

mid-stage funding rounds

Flat/Down Round Percentage Prior

5%

less than

first half of 2022

Forward Software Multiples

7.0x

predicted end of 2023

public software companies

Inflation Target

2.5%

below

end of 2023 prediction

Private Equity Acquisition Percentage

10%

of total

70+ publicly traded software companies

Seed Stage Post-Money Valuation

10-15$m

range

early stage 2023 fundraising

Series A Post-Money Valuation

50-60$m

range

companies with ~$500k ARR

Web3 Accounts on Centralized Exchanges

100m

more than

2022 market assessment