Tomasz Tunguz Blog · 2026-01-14
· 141d
Six Failure Modes of Dead Companies: Lessons from a Short-Seller on AI-Era Business Risk
Venture capitalist Tomasz Tunguz analyzes Scott Fearon's framework of six common failure modes that lead to company collapse, drawing from three decades of executive meetings and 200+ shorted companies. The analysis applies these lessons to the current SaaS-to-AI transition, highlighting how traditional success formulas and strategies are becoming obsolete in the rapidly evolving AI landscape.
Metrics in this report
AI Budget Allocation - Net New
41%
aggregate
proportion of AI spending from new budgets vs reallocation
Companies Shorted by Crown Capital
200+count
total
stock shorting activity over career
Newsletter Readership
150000+subscribers
approximate
Tomasz Tunguz newsletter audience
SaaS Valuation Multiple Trend
flatmultiple
median
SaaS companies over past 3 years