Tomasz Tunguz Blog · 2026-01-14 · 141d

Six Failure Modes of Dead Companies: Lessons from a Short-Seller on AI-Era Business Risk

Venture capitalist Tomasz Tunguz analyzes Scott Fearon's framework of six common failure modes that lead to company collapse, drawing from three decades of executive meetings and 200+ shorted companies. The analysis applies these lessons to the current SaaS-to-AI transition, highlighting how traditional success formulas and strategies are becoming obsolete in the rapidly evolving AI landscape.

4 metrics· Cited 0× in the knowledge base ·Open source ↗

Metrics in this report

AI Budget Allocation - Net New

41%

aggregate

proportion of AI spending from new budgets vs reallocation

Companies Shorted by Crown Capital

200+count

total

stock shorting activity over career

Newsletter Readership

150000+subscribers

approximate

Tomasz Tunguz newsletter audience

SaaS Valuation Multiple Trend

flatmultiple

median

SaaS companies over past 3 years