a16z New Media · 2026-03-13 · 83d

Global Supply Chain Disruption: The Hormuz Crisis and the Great Rotation from Software to Infrastructure

The article analyzes two major market developments: disruption to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz in March 2026, which triggered unprecedented retail trading activity in oil futures, and a significant shift in capital allocation from asset-light software companies to capital-intensive infrastructure and semiconductor businesses driven by AI infrastructure investment.

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Metrics in this report

Asset-Light Outperformance Period

15years

approximate

asset-light vs asset-heavy stock performance pre-2025

Cargo to Asian Markets via Hormuz

80%

minimum

Percentage to China, India, Japan, South Korea

Oil Price Peak

115$

peak

per barrel during March 6-9 spike

Oil Price Recovery

80$

approximately

per barrel after correction

Oil Price Swing

35$

range

up and down movement over 48 hours

Software vs Industrial Payback Multiple

10x times

greater

software payback time vs capital-intensive businesses

Strait of Hormuz Fertilizer Traffic Share

16%

global

percentage of world's fertilizer passing through Strait

Strait of Hormuz Mineral Traffic Share

22%

global

percentage of world's minerals passing through Strait

Strait of Hormuz Oil Traffic Share

34%

global

percentage of world's oil passing through Strait

USO Trading Volume Peak Day

16$ billions

single day

March 9, 2026

USO Volume Comparison to Israel-Iran Conflict

4x multiple

multiplier

2024 Israel-Iran conflict volume