Delaware's Corporate Dominance Under Pressure: DExit Trends, AI Capex Surge, and Delayed Adulthood Milestones
This multi-topic analysis examines the decline of Delaware's incorporation dominance despite historical network effects, explores the massive scale of AI capital expenditure relative to other economic measures, and presents evidence that Kalshi prediction markets outperform professional forecasters on Fed rate predictions. The article also highlights a concerning trend of delayed life milestones among 30-year-olds despite increased college attainment.
Metrics in this report
nearly equalcomparative magnitude
2025 bank lending baseline
AI capital expenditure relative to total new bank lending
33%
larger than
2026 AI Capex versus US corporate income tax collected
3times larger
multiplier
2026 AI Capex versus total custom duties
6times larger
multiplier
2026 AI Capex versus combined non-US G7 military budgets
6,000 to 12,000tokens processed
mean
nearly doubled consumption with price decline
90 to 50cents per million tokens
beginning of year 2026
decline in paid token pricing
nearly doubledshare with B.A.
since 1995
bachelor's degree completion rates
10%
Q3 2025
quarterly decline in new corporate incorporations in Delaware
similar to professional forecastersmean absolute error
3 FOMC meetings forward
comparison to professional forecaster survey accuracy