a16z New Media · 2026-02-27 · 97d

Delaware's Corporate Dominance Under Pressure: DExit Trends, AI Capex Surge, and Delayed Adulthood Milestones

This multi-topic analysis examines the decline of Delaware's incorporation dominance despite historical network effects, explores the massive scale of AI capital expenditure relative to other economic measures, and presents evidence that Kalshi prediction markets outperform professional forecasters on Fed rate predictions. The article also highlights a concerning trend of delayed life milestones among 30-year-olds despite increased college attainment.

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Metrics in this report

2026 AI Capex vs Net-New Bank Lending

nearly equalcomparative magnitude

2025 bank lending baseline

AI capital expenditure relative to total new bank lending

AI Capex to Corporate Income Tax Ratio

33%

larger than

2026 AI Capex versus US corporate income tax collected

AI Capex to Custom Duties Ratio

3times larger

multiplier

2026 AI Capex versus total custom duties

AI Capex to Non-US G7 Military Budgets Ratio

6times larger

multiplier

2026 AI Capex versus combined non-US G7 military budgets

AI Token Consumption

6,000 to 12,000tokens processed

mean

nearly doubled consumption with price decline

AI Token Pricing

90 to 50cents per million tokens

beginning of year 2026

decline in paid token pricing

College Degree Attainment Among 30-Year-Olds

nearly doubledshare with B.A.

since 1995

bachelor's degree completion rates

Delaware New Incorporations Market Share Decline

10%

Q3 2025

quarterly decline in new corporate incorporations in Delaware

Kalshi Fed Funds Rate Forecast Accuracy - 150 Days Ahead

similar to professional forecastersmean absolute error

3 FOMC meetings forward

comparison to professional forecaster survey accuracy