tomtunguz.com · 2026-04-09 · 56d

The AI Problem Matrix

Tunguz presents a 2x2 matrix framework for categorizing AI applications based on demand ceiling (finite vs. infinite) and loop closure (open vs. closed). The matrix segments AI use cases into four categories: Economic Engines (closed loop + infinite demand), Efficiency Plays (closed loop + finite demand), Creative Amplifiers (open loop + infinite demand), and Utility Tools (open loop + finite demand), with implications for scaling value and ROI.

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Metrics in this report

GitHub Actions Minutes Growth

2.1billions per week

2026; up from 500 million minutes/week in 2023 and 1 billion in 2025

GitHub Commits Growth

275millions per week

2026 baseline; 1 billion commits in 2025