Tomasz Tunguz Blog · 2026-01-15
· 140d
NVIDIA's AI Boom: The Third Wave and the P/E-Growth Decoupling Pattern
Tomasz Tunguz analyzes NVIDIA's third major revenue growth cycle driven by AI, following gaming and cryptocurrency booms. The article identifies a pattern where P/E ratios lead revenue growth by one year during upswings but decouple at peaks, with the current AI wave still showing strong correlation suggesting the cycle will continue.
Metrics in this report
P/E to Revenue Growth Correlation (1-year offset)
0.80correlation coefficient
mean
NVIDIA historical cycles
P/E to Revenue Growth Correlation at Peak
0 to negativecorrelation coefficient
range
End of boom cycle
Revenue Growth Rate During Booms
>50%
minimum during upswing
NVIDIA technology boom cycles
Time Offset Between P/E and Revenue Growth
4quarters
standard lag
NVIDIA valuation cycles