Tomasz Tunguz (Theory Ventures) · 2026-02-19
· 105d
The Rise of Secondary Markets: How Venture Capital's Three-Way Exit Liquidity Split Reshapes Funding
Venture capital exits have fundamentally shifted from IPO-dominated liquidity to a three-way split among IPOs, M&A, and secondaries. Secondary markets have grown from 3% of exit value in 2015 to 31% ($95B in trailing twelve months), driven by 2022's IPO market closure and institutional adoption by major financial firms. This structural change creates new liquidity pathways for founders, GPs, and LPs while exposing coverage gaps for non-elite companies.
Metrics in this report
Cumulative LP Negative Net Cash Flows
169$B
cumulative
limited partners since 2022
Secondary Market Dollar Value
95$B
trailing twelve months
venture capital exits
Secondary Market Share of Exit Value
3% to 31%%
trailing twelve months
venture capital exits, 2015 vs. 2026
Total Unicorn Post-Money Valuation
3.9$T
aggregate
830 unicorn companies
Unicorn Backlog Clearance Timeline
17years
at current IPO pace
time to clear 830 unicorns through IPOs only
VC-Backed IPO Pace
48IPOs/year
2025 pace
US venture capital backed companies