Tomasz Tunguz (Theory Ventures) · 2026-02-19 · 105d

The Rise of Secondary Markets: How Venture Capital's Three-Way Exit Liquidity Split Reshapes Funding

Venture capital exits have fundamentally shifted from IPO-dominated liquidity to a three-way split among IPOs, M&A, and secondaries. Secondary markets have grown from 3% of exit value in 2015 to 31% ($95B in trailing twelve months), driven by 2022's IPO market closure and institutional adoption by major financial firms. This structural change creates new liquidity pathways for founders, GPs, and LPs while exposing coverage gaps for non-elite companies.

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Metrics in this report

Cumulative LP Negative Net Cash Flows

169$B

cumulative

limited partners since 2022

Secondary Market Dollar Value

95$B

trailing twelve months

venture capital exits

Secondary Market Share of Exit Value

3% to 31%%

trailing twelve months

venture capital exits, 2015 vs. 2026

Total Unicorn Post-Money Valuation

3.9$T

aggregate

830 unicorn companies

Unicorn Backlog Clearance Timeline

17years

at current IPO pace

time to clear 830 unicorns through IPOs only

VC-Backed IPO Pace

48IPOs/year

2025 pace

US venture capital backed companies