tomtunguz.com · 2026-02-19 · 105d

A Third, A Third, A Surprising Third

For the first time in venture history, exit liquidity is split roughly equally among three channels: IPOs, M&A, and secondary sales, with secondaries growing from 3% of exit value in 2015 to 31% today. The shift accelerated after public markets closed in 2022, and major financial institutions (Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Charles Schwab) have recognized this structural change by acquiring secondary market platforms. With 830 unicorns holding $3.9T in aggregate valuation that cannot all exit via IPO (which at 2025's pace would take 17 years), secondaries now function as critical infrastructure enabling liquidity and capital returns to LPs.

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Metrics in this report

LP Cumulative Negative Cash Flows

169billion USD

cumulative

Aggregate negative net cash flows to LPs since 2022

Secondary Exit Value

31percent

current

Share of VC exit value in trailing twelve months (2025)

Secondary Exit Value (Historical)

3percent

historical

Share of VC exit value in 2015

Secondary Market Size

95billion USD

trailing twelve months

VC exit value flowing through secondary channels (2025)

Unicorn Aggregate Valuation

3.9trillion USD

current

Post-money valuation held by 830 venture-backed unicorns

Unicorn Backlog Clearance Timeline

17years

projected

Time required to exit all 830 unicorns at current IPO pace

VC-Backed IPO Pace

48companies per year

current

2025 annual pace of venture capital-backed initial public offerings