tomtunguz.com · 2018-12-18 · 2725d

Predictions for 2019

Venture capitalist Tomasz Tunguz forecasts that 2019 will see a meaningful slowdown in M&A (especially mega-deals), continued strength in the IPO market with SaaS multiples remaining elevated at 8x forward revenue, and emerging opportunities in blockchain, cloud incumbents, and data engineering. The article reviews his 2018 predictions with mixed results, noting correct calls on M&A activity and open-source disruption, but misses on blockchain enterprise adoption and opinionated software stacks.

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Metrics in this report

M&A Multiples Premium

2x multiple increase

recent

2018 M&A multiples relative to recent years

SaaS Revenue Multiple (Forward)

8x forward revenue

current

SaaS companies as of December 2018

SaaS Revenue Multiple vs. Historical

45percent above average

premium

SaaS forward multiples relative to historical averages

Software M&A Volume

100billion USD

near

2018 software M&A volume, 3x higher than prior seven-year average