      tomtunguz.com · 2025-12-22
      · 164d
    

12 Predictions for 2026

Tunguz forecasts 12 major technology and business trends for 2026, including AI agents commanding premium pricing, record liquidity events (IPOs exceeding $25B), vector databases becoming essential infrastructure, and enterprise adoption of autonomous AI systems. The predictions span AI capability expansion, infrastructure investment, observability tools, payments innovation, and a shift toward agent-first design across the web and enterprise systems.

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Metrics in this report

AI Task Duration Growth Rate

2xdoubling period

Task completion duration doubles every 7 months according to METR

Data Center Investment as Percentage of US GDP

3.5%percent

target

Projected for 2026

Waymo Pricing Premium vs. Uber

31%percent

average

Autonomous vehicle rides vs. human-driven rideshare