Tomasz Tunguz (Personal Blog/Theory Ventures) · 2024-01-01 · 885d

2024 Tech Industry Predictions and 2023 Performance Review

Tomasz Tunguz, a venture capitalist at Theory Ventures, shares his 2024 predictions for the tech industry including IPO reopening, M&A acceleration, AI dominance, and cryptocurrency resurgence. He also scores his 2023 predictions, achieving a 4.0/5.0 overall accuracy rating across five major forecasts about market conditions, valuations, and fundraising trends.

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Metrics in this report

AI Business Premium to Market

10-25%

range

2024 valuation multiple differential

AI-Enabled Search Market Share

50%

approaching

2024 consumer search forecast

ARR Per Employee Growth Target

10%

annual

2024 productivity improvement vs. decade average of 5%

Forward EV/Revenue Multiple 2023

7.2x

average

Software company valuations

M&A Volume Two-Year Historical

49$b

total

2021-2023 M&A activity

PE Take-Private Transactions 2023

8transactions

actual count

Public software company acquisitions

Projected M&A Volume 2024

60+$b

minimum

AI-driven M&A forecast

Seed Round Post-Money Valuation 2023

15.0$m

median

Early stage pricing

Series A Post-Money Valuation 2023

54$m

median

Growth stage pricing with ~$500k ARR

Series A Valuation Change 2022 to 2023

-10%

decline

From $60m to $54m median

US VC Investment 2022

275$b

peak

Historical VC funding

US VC Investment 2023

200$b

actual

Post-euphoria correction

US VC Investment 2024 Forecast

200-220$b

range

Projected sustained level