2024 Predictions | Tomasz Tunguz

Tunguz predicts the 2024 venture landscape will be shaped by IPO reopening (driven by mega-issuances and Fed rate cuts), acceleration of M&A activity (especially AI-focused deals), sustained VC investment at $200-220B with AI premium valuations, and meaningful productivity gains from AI deployment reducing headcount growth while maintaining revenue projections. The article also scores his 2023 predictions at 4.0/5.0, noting accurate calls on Fed multiples, PE take-privates, and crypto recovery.