Data Update 3 for 2024: Interest Rates in 2023 - A Rule-breaking Year

This article analyzes global interest rate movements in 2023, arguing that inflation—not Federal Reserve policy—is the primary driver of long-term rates, and challenges conventional wisdom about yield curve inversions as reliable recession predictors. The author demonstrates that treasury rates remained largely flat despite Fed rate hikes, and that the inverted yield curve throughout 2023 failed to predict the anticipated recession, suggesting the signal contains substantial noise.